design and implementation of a covid 19 forecasting and evaluation system.

Abstract

The corona virus disease 19 (COVID-19) is a highly transmittable and pathogenic viral infection caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome corona virus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), which emerged in Wuhan, China and spread around the world. Genomic analysis revealed that SARS-CoV-2 is phylogenetically related to severe acute respiratory syndrome-like (SARS-like) bat viruses, therefore bats could be the possible primary reservoir. The intermediate source of origin and transfer to humans is not known, however, the rapid human to human transfer has been confirmed widely. There is no clinically approved antiviral drug or vaccine available to be used against COVID-19. However, few broad-spectrum antiviral drugs have been evaluated against COVID-19 in clinical trials, resulted in clinical recovery. In the current review, we summarize and comparatively analyze the emergence and pathogenicity of COVID-19 infection and previous human corona viruses severe acute respiratory syndrome corona virus (SARS-CoV) and middle east respiratory syndrome corona virus (MERS-CoV). We also discuss the approaches for developing effective vaccines and therapeutic combinations to cope with this viral outbreak. This study is an attempt to eradicate the virus through an effective use of evaluation and forecasting system. The system will collect, analyze, evaluate and forecast the future occurrences of new cases which will enable appropriate authorities to put on adequate measures that will drastically reduce the spread.

CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION

1.1 Background of the Study

The corona virus disease 19 (COVID-19) is a highly transmittable and pathogenic viral infection caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome corona virus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), which emerged in Wuhan, China and spread around the world. Genomic analysis revealed that SARS-CoV-2 is phylogenetically related to severe acute respiratory syndrome-like (SARS-like) bat viruses; therefore bats could be the possible primary reservoir. The intermediate source of origin and transfer to humans is not known, however, the rapid human to human transfer has been confirmed widely. There is no clinically approved antiviral drug or vaccine available to be used against COVID-19. However, few broad-spectrum antiviral drugs have been evaluated against COVID-19 in clinical trials, resulted in clinical recovery. This research centers on the corona virus evaluation and forecasting. Forecasting is a means of predicting what is going to happen in the future, next month, year, decade e.t.c. Accurate forecasting requires high quality data, application of the application of the appropriate forecasting technique and knowledge interpretation. The accuracy of such forecasts depends in large measure on the degree to which the past is a good guide to the future (Studemund, 1995).

Prior to building a forecast model, the first step is to clearly understand the problem in order to establish the forecast range and objective (Al-Alawi, 1996). Therefore, the four steps of forecasting are:-

1. Collect and analyze the data through graphs to determine, if any of the numbers seen inconsistent with the data.
2. Make assumptions consistent with the data.
3. Test the relationships using statistical analysis.
4. Feedback the result (Burns, 1984).

The research work on covid19 forecasting and evaluation will focus on the use of linear regression model to forecast covid 19 pandemic in Nigeria. It can be highly beneficial for government to develop a system to forecast future values of some important metrics such as possible infections of its citizens, or variables that describes the pandemic status.

There are different methods of making forecasts, but they all fall into two categories. Casual methods and time series method, (Andrew Gellant, 2013). Linear regression is time series methods that use basic statistics to project future values for a target variable. All organizations, big or small have at their disposal men, machines and materials, the supply of which may be limited, (Gupta and Hiza 2008). If the supply of these resources were unlimited, the need for managerial tool like linear programming would not rise at all. Supply of sources being limited, the management must find the best ablation of its resources in order to maximum the profit or minimize the loss or utilize the production capacity to the maximum. However, this involves a number of problems which can be overcome by quantitative methods, particularly the linear programming in different financial institutions.

1.2 Statement of the Problem

There are many problems concerned with forecasting and evaluation of corona virus, such as

1. Difficulty in evaluating efforts to limit the spread of infection within the country
2. Inability to describe in particular the possible spread of infection especially in areas with socioeconomic challenges.
3. Inability to evaluate whether there will be shortcomings in terms of access to adequate personal protective equipment (PPE)
4. Inadequate prediction on the capacity of the health care system to tackle the outbreak of the virus.

 1.3 Significance of Study

This research work will provide a more benefits to users such as:

1. Way of handling evaluation and forecasting using linear regression model to forecast pandemics and also reduce time and stress.
2. It can be beneficial to both the management and the staff of NCDC.
3. The management would experience a tremendous increase in the whole evaluation processes.

1.4 Aims and Objectives Of Study

The aim of this research is the design and implementation of a covid 19 forecasting and evaluation system.

The specific objectives are:

1. Evaluate and forecast covid 19 pandemic.
2. Evaluate efforts to limit the spread of the virus
3. Analyze the available personal protective equipment and determine whether they are sufficient enough to tackle the future pandemic if there are shortcomings.
4. To predict whether our health care system is capable of curtailing the spread of the virus.

1.5 Contributions to IT Practice

This project work “Design and Implementation of an expert system for evaluation and forecasting of covid 19” will certainly foster the use of computerized systems in disease control. It will produce a system that will be able to eradicate the problem of manual evaluation of patients. This expert system will also give room to further expansion through time making it possible to produce a more fastest and accurate means of forecasting future pandemics.

1.6 Scope of Study

This research work is to develop a system capable of evaluating and forecasting spread of corona virus pandemic on a daily basis using an expert system.

This system will not incorporate in its development all the models use for forecasting but will focus only on the aforementioned models and functionalities.

1.7 Assumptions

Assumption is any project factor that is considered to be true, real, or certain without empirical proof or demonstration. Realistically speaking, it is impossible to plan a project without making a few assumptions (Boogaard, 2020).

The following assumptions were made in the course of this study

• Knowledge base being a storage area of data, facts, rules and other information structures acquired from the human expert.
• User interface being the medium through which the user interacts with the machine
• Expert Systems having the capacity of completing some tasks quicker than a human.

1.8 Limitations

• Time constraint: time frame for this work is short
• Lack of power supply: there was unstable electric power supply to enable consistent development of the system and in carrying out research online.
• Limited literature: Not much work has been done in this area of computer science/ engineering.
• Unavailability of materials: lack of access to research materials on the topic was also a major constraint in the cause of this project.
• Fund: as a student there was limited fund to take care of the research property and training resources for fish farming.

1.9 Delimitations

Delimitations are those characteristics that limit the scope and define the boundaries of your study (Simon, 2011).

The delimitation of my study is;

• Corona virus and its pandemic

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