ABSTRACT
This study examines the major effects of climate change on Fisheries and Aquaculture. Factors responsible for climate change which include burning of fuel, oil, coal, gas, deforestation among others cause the emission of green house gases (carbon dioxide, water vapour, methane and nitrous oxide) into the atmosphere with resultant global warming leading to climate change. The main elements of climate change that would impact on Fisheries and Aquaculture production such as global warming, sea level rise, ocean acidification and ocean salinity, density and stratification were properly looked at and the reasons for their effects were addressed. The different impact of climate change that are experienced in varying degrees can be either positive or negative which can occur directly or indirectly depending on the different culture system that are practiced. The direct effect act on the physiology, growth rate, reproduction, behaviour and survival of individual while indirect effect act on ecosystem processes and changes in production of food or abundance of competitors, predators and pathogen. The major impact of climate change on Fisheries and Aquaculture were carefully discussed as well as the adaptation and mitigation strategies that should be adopted by the society to ameliorate the harsh effect of climate change and the subsequent global warming.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Title page – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – i
Approval page – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – -ii
Dedication – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – iii
Aknowledgement – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – iv
Abstract. – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – v
Table of contents – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – vi
CHAPTER ONE
1.0 Introduction. – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – 1
1.1General background of climate change. – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – -2
CHAPTER TWO
2.1 Factors responsible for climate change. – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – 6
2.2 Aspect of climate change that will impact on Fisheries and Aquaculture. – – – -6
2.2.1 Global warming. – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – -7
2.2.2 Rising sea level. – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – 10
2.2.3 Ocean acidification. – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – -11
2.2.4 Ocean salinity, density and stratification. – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – 12
2.3 Impact of climate change on Fisheries. – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – -13
2.3.1Physiological effect of climate change on fish. – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – -14
2.3.2 Spawning. – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – 15
2.3.3 Change in distribution and abundance of fish species. – – – – – – – – – – – – – – 16
2.3.4 Species invasions and diseases. – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – -17
CHAPTER THREE
3.0 Impact of climate change on Aquaculture. – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – -19
3.1 Direct impact. – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – — – – – – – 19
3.1.1 Inland aquaculture. – – – — – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – -19
3.1.2 Occurence of extreme climatic events. – – – – – – – – – – — – – – – – – – – 21
3.1.3 Water stress. – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – — – – – – – 22
3.2 Indirect impact. – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – — – – – – – -23
3.2.1 Fish meal and fish oil supplies. – – – – – – – – – – – – – – — – – – – – – – – 24
3.2.2 Impact on disease. – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – — – – – – – – – 26
3.2.3 Impact on biodiversity. – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – — – – – – – – -27
CHAPTER FOUR
4.0 Mitigation and adaptation to climate change. – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – 29
4.1 Climate change adaptation in Fisheries and Aquaculture. – – – – – – – – – – – 29
4.1.1 Potential adaptation measures in Fisheries. – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – 29
4.1.2 Potential adaptation measures in Aquaculture. – – – – – – — – – – – – – – – 31
4.2 Achievable mitigation measures. – – – – – – – – – – – – – – — – – – – – – – – 37
4.2.1 Mitigation in Fisheries production system. – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – 37
4.2.2 Mitigation inAquaculture production system. – – – – – – – — – – – – – – – – 38
4.3 Role of government in adaptation and mitigation. – – – – – – — – – – – – – – – 38
4.4 Constrained to adaptation and mal-adaptation. – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – 41
CHAPTER FIVE
5.0 Conclusion. – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – -43
5.1 Recommendation. – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – 48
References. – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – — – – – – 49
CHAPTER ONE
INTRODUCTION
1.1 Background to the Study
Climate changes appear to be putting Nigeria’s agriculture system under serious threat and stress. This study of the impacts of climatic change on agricultural production in Nigeria is very critical given its impact in changing livelihood patterns in the country. According to Ogen (2007) the agricultural sector has multiplier effect on any nation’s socio-economic and industrial fabric because of the multifunctional nature of the sector. Agricultural production remains the main source of livelihood for most rural communities in developing countries, Nigeria in particular. Agriculture provides a source of employment for more than 60% of rural population and contributes about 30% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). (Mayong, 2005).
In Nigeria, agriculture is the main source of food and employer of labor (mayong, 2005). As a result of the abnormalities in climate changes, holistic approaches are required in Nigeria to tide the erratic rainfall pattern that is currently hampering agriculture yields since 1970s. Climate factors play an important role in realization of higher or lower agricultural production such knowledge of those factors is necessary to policy makers and the subsistence/commercial farmers. Since agriculture in Nigeria is mostly rain-fed, it follows therefore that any change in climate is bound to impact its production in particular and other socio-economic activities in the country.
Rainfall is by far the most important element of climate change in Nigeria Adejumo (2004).The impact could however, be measured in terms of effect on crop growth, availability of soil water, soil erosion, incidence of pest and disease, sea level rises and decreases in soil fertility.
The issue of climate change has become more threatening not only to sustain developmental activities of any nation but to the totality of human existence. As further explained by the United Nations, the effect of climate change implies that the local climate variability which people have previously experienced and adapted to is changing and this change is observed in a relatively great speed. The threat that climate change pose to agricultural production does not only cover the area of crop husbandry but also includes livestock production and in fact the total agricultural sector. Based on this, there is need to have knowledge of future climate change in order to avert its effects to the total agricultural production in Nigeria. This will lead to high crop production and food crop sufficiency in the country.
Consistent reduction in rainfall leads to a reduction in the natural regeneration rate of land resources Fasona and Omojola (2005). This makes people to exploit more previously undisturbed lands leading to depletion of forest cover and increase on sand dunes/Aeolian deposits in northern east axis of Nigeria. Climate change is more serious threat than global terrorism King (2004). The southern area of Nigeria largely known for high rainfall and temperature is gradually increasing in the guinea savanna zone of the country. In addition, the northern zone faces the threat of desert encroachment FME (2004). If climate signal could be detected at regional level, it could be useful to policy makers, agricultural experts and farmers to prepare for climatic change.
Climate change refers to an increase in average global temperatures. Natural events and human activities are believed to be contributing to an increase in average global temperatures. This is caused primarily by increase in greenhouse gases such as carbon (IV) oxide.These are expected to add to the challenges climate changes already poses for poverty eradication De Wit and Stankiewicz (2006). Climatic change is one of the largest threats to Nigeria’s agricultural production. It has become a new reality with the deleterious effects. Seasonal cycles are disrupted; eco systems, agriculture, water needs and supply; and food production are all adversely affected. Nigeria is experiencing adverse climate conditions with negative impacts on the welfare of millions of people. Persistence droughts and flooding, offseason and dry spells have distorted the growing seasons of agricultural products, on a country dependent on a rain fed agriculture. Alarm bells are ringing with drying up and a reduction in river flows in the arid and semi-arid regions. The result is fewer water supplies for use in agriculture, hydro- power generation and other uses. The main suspect for all these havoc is climate change.
According to Obioha (2009), the sustainability of the environment to provide all life support systems and materials for fulfilling all developmental aspirations of man and animal is dependent on the suitability of the climate which is undergoing constant changes. The agricultural sector contributes which is undergoing constant changes. The agricultural sector contributes some percentage of Nigerian Gross National Products (GNP) and majority of the rural populace are employed in this sector. The dominant role of agriculture makes it obvious that even minor climate deteriorations can cause devastating socio-economic consequences. Policies to curb the problem of climate change by the consumption of fossil fuels like oil, gas or carbon, have significant economic impacts on the producers or rather suppliers of these fuels. Nigeria is the ninth largest oil supplier in the world and also the eight largest deposits of gas. Nigeria is practically a monoculture; about 80% of government income, 90-95% of the export earnings and more than 90% of the foreign exchange revenues evolve from the oil sector. This means that Nigeria economy would be massively affected by a sustainable reduction of fossil energy consumption.
The impact of climate change on food production is gradually being felt by most rural farmers in the form of delayed rains, floods, diseases outbreaks and the continued degradation of the soil, making it difficult to cultivate crops that would give a bumper harvest. The prices of major food commodities such as cereals, onions, garlic, tomatoes are therefore expected to shoot up in Nigeria especially due to recent incidences of flood and irregular rainfall that have affected major food producing states in the north and riverine areas of Nigeria. The effect of these changes is posing threat to food security in Nigeria.
Moreover, the impact of climatic changes on agricultural production could be measured in terms of effects on crop growth availability of soil water, soil erosion, incident of pest and diseases, sea level rises and decreases in soil fertility Adejuwon (2004). The issue of climatic change has become more threatening not only to the sustainable development of socio-economics and agricultural activities of any nation but the totality of human existence. The growing challenges that climate change is posing on food production and ultimately on the final prices of food items in the market means number of individuals that would be affected by the hunger may gradually rise except if the challenge is dealt with headlong. While excessive flooding has hurt farming in coastal communities in the past years, desertification is ravaging the Sahel. Traditionally, desertification in the Sahel has been blamed on overgrazing practices of the local population. But it has been discovered that the real problem is climatic change. Rainfall in the Sahel has been declining steadily since the 1960’s.
As further explained by the UNFCC, the effects of climatic changes implies that local climate variability which people have previously experienced and adapted to is changing and this changes is observed in a relatively great speed. The threat that climate change pose to agricultural production does not only cover the area of crop husbandry but also cover the area of livestock both directly and indirectly (Adams et. al 1999; manning and Nobrew 2001). Direct effects of climate variables such as temperature, humidity, wind speed and other climatic factors influence animal performances such as growth, milk production, and wool production. The result has been loss of farmlands and conflicts between farmers and herdsmen over ever decreasing land. Many different communities, including fishermen, farmers and herdsmen, are now confronted with difficulties arising from climate changes. People’s livelihoods are being harmed, and people who are already poor are becoming even more impoverished. Climate refugees are being created, as the changes make some land unlivable and affect water supplies. In spite of all the existing evidence that developing country’s agriculture is more likely to be negatively affected by climate change; more efforts have been made to qualify the impact in developed countries. Even then, there has been little research carried out in Nigeria. The vulnerability of the agricultural sector to climate change is of particular interest to policy makers because agriculture is a key sector in the economy accounting for between 60-70% of the labor force and contributing between 30-40%of the nation’s GDP (Mayong, 2005). The sector is also the source of foreign exchange earnings for the country. How much one can hold climate responsible for changes in agricultural productivity in Nigeria will, for a long time, remain a subject of research as long as other factors are interplay in determining agricultural production.
1.2 Statement ofProblem
Of recent, the agricultural sector in Nigeria has not been able to fulfill its traditional role of feeding the population, meeting the raw material needs of the industries as well as providing substantial export earnings for the economy. Indeed the contribution of the sector to total GDP has been falling, not necessarily because a strong industrial sector is displacing agriculture, but as a result of low production. Nigerian is Africa’s most populous country and once a large net exporter of food, now imports food. Emerging problems which constrained the full realization of the potentials in the agricultural sector production can be traced to climate change.
Climate change is a global phenomenon, and is evident in Nigeria. The negative impacts of climate change such as temperature rise, erratic rainfall, and sand storms, desertification, low agricultural yield, drying up of water bodies and flooding are real in the desert prone areas of Nigeria. Environmental degradation and attendant desertification are major threats to the livelihood of the inhabitants of the frontline states of Nigeria. This leads to increasing population pressure, intensive agricultural and land use, overgrazing, bush burning, extraction of fuel, wood and other biotic resources. The challenges posed by climate variations on crop production have been documented.
Olesen and Bindi (2002) reported that climate change will likely lead to a major spatial shift and extension of crop lands as it will create a favorable or restricted environment for crop growth across different regions. Studies indicate that drought and flood negatively affect crop production (Olaniran, 1991, Onyekwelu et al, 2006 and Omotosho and Abiodun, 2007). Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (2007) assessment reports predicted increased evaporation and lower soil moisture levels in drier areas as a result; some cultivated areas may become increasingly arid. Several factors that directly affect climate change and agricultural production include; average temperature increase, change in rainfall amount and patterns, rising atmospheric concentration of CO2 pollution levels and climate variability with associated extreme events such as drought, flood and storms have also been well documented.
Africa will be worst hit by the effects of climate change which Nigeria is part of it. The agricultural sector contributes some percentage of the Nigerian Gross National Product and majority of the rural populace are employed in this sector. The dominant role of agriculture makes it obvious that even minor climate deteriorations can cause devastating socioeconomic consequences. Policies to curb the climate change by reducing the consumption of fossil fuels like oil, gas or carbon, have significant economic impacts on the producers or rather the suppliers of these fuels. Nigeria is the eighth largest oil supplier in the world and the ninth largest deposits of gas (Ogen, 2007). The Nigerian national economy would be massively affected by a sustainable reduction of fossil energy consumption. Nigeria is practically a monoculture: about 80% of the government income, 90-95% of the export earnings and more than 90% of the foreign exchange revenues evolve from the oil sector (Ajewolu 2008).
However, during the last years the government of Nigeria tried to diversify. Special attention is nowadays paid to gas which emerges in the joint-production of oil. So far the gas has mainly been flared (75%), simply due to the lack of technical facilities to make use of it (IPCC, 2015).
Climate change is an unprecedented threat to food security. Arid and semi-arid areas in northern Nigerian are becoming drier, while the southern part of the country are getting wetter. They are going to be caught between the devil of drought and the deep blue seas of floods. Unless climate change is tackled, all the “best efforts” to help this great country to improve the agriculture sector could come to nothing. One of the biggest threats is growing climate unpredictability which makes subsistence farming difficult, but a better planning to reduce this rise from disasters, together with developing agricultural practices that can withstand changing climates, have been shown to work and could help mitigate the impact if used more widely.
Climate change is really of great concern to our nation and there have been visible and viable demonstrations of government’s preparedness to tackle this issue. Despite the measures taken in the past to curb its effect and adapt to the frequent disasters of climate change in Nigeria, we are still faced with this problem. This research work will identify the factors (both climate and non-climate) that impact on agricultural production (whether positive or negative) and proffer solution towards the attainment of increased agricultural production in Nigeria’s economy.
The greatest cause of concern is that the blue print for Nigeria’s development vision 20-20-20 and other developmental programmes fail to give acknowledgement of significance of climate change to agriculture (Adenuji.O., 2013).
Empirically, there is a plethora of studies for both developing and developed countries on the impact of climate change on agricultural production. Studies in this area abound in Nigeria, however, the method employed differ with mixed results. There difference in opinions, method and empirical findings on the impact of climate change on agriculture production in Nigeria is of serious concern and necessitates further research. This study intends to contribute to the existing body of knowledge, and debates on the impact of climate change on agricultural production on Nigeria’s economy by investigating the long run impact of climate change on the agricultural production using vector error correction model to capture both the short run and long run dynamic adjustment of the model as this will help to know the speed of adjustment. Thus filling the gap in the literature and adding to the existing body of knowledge.
1.3 Research Questions
We aim at providing answers to the following research questions
- Does climate change have any significant impact on agricultural production in Nigeria?
- . Is there long run relationship between climate change and agricultural production in Nigeria?
1.4 Objective of the Study
The broad objective of this study is to empirically and critically examine the essence of climatic change on agricultural production in Nigeria.
The specific objectives of this study are to find the following:
- To examine if climate change has any significant impacts on agricultural production in Nigeria.
- To ascertain the possibility of long run relationship between climate change and agricultural production in Nigeria.
1.5 Research Hypotheses
Ho: Climate change does not have any significant impact on agricultural production in
Nigeria.
Ho: There is no long run relationship between climate change variables and
agricultural production in Nigeria.
1.6 Significance of the Study
The outcome of this study is of great importance and significant in policy formulation, since Africa has been described as one of the most vulnerable continents to climate change and its variability, and Nigeria being one of the countries to be immensely affected. This research work will be a useful tool for the government and all the stakeholders involved in global phenomenon to have access to effective and reliable information on climate change in Nigeria. It is from this point that policies of reliable and effective measures of adaptation need to be implemented and must be accessible to the end users. Besides, this study will enrich the literature on climate change in Nigeria.
1.7 Scope of the Study
This work is expected to capture and analyze the impacts of climate change on agricultural production in Nigeria between the periods of 1981 and 2016. The choice of this period is due to the nation’s economic history within the period especially as it relates to climate change and agricultural production in Nigeria
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