ABSTRACT
This research’s main objective is to study the dynamic relationship between population growth and unemployment in Nigeria. The study is of utmost importance as it addresses a strategic aspect of the economy and also considering the fact that the country has been experiencing a slow growth rate and a severe decline in development. A regression model is used to describe the statistical relationship between population growth and unemployment. It is hypothesized that population growth has a strong impact on unemployment in Nigeria. It is assumed that a positive relationship exists between population growth and unemployment. A highly significant result was obtained after a simple regression was carried out which shows that population plays a role in the rise of unemployment in Nigeria which implies that a rise in population growth leads to a rise in unemployment. Many reasons have been attributed as to why population growth is on the rise and how it proportionately affects unemployment. The major reasons for a rise in population include increase in birth rate, socio-cultural beliefs and improvement in welfare and medical facilities. Although the positive effects of population cannot be overlooked, it is also important to note that its negative effects highly outweigh its positives. When there is high population, the country tends to exceed its carrying capacity, which means that the country can no longer support its large population in terms of resources as well as job opportunities. The problem of unemployment is very alarming and demands urgent attention and solutions as its effects are very severe. Some of its effect include; increase in income inequality, rise in criminal activities like Boko-Haram and decline in the general standard of living. It is expected that everyone on all grounds including individuals, agencies and government to take a stand and play important roles in stabilizing population growth as well as minimizing unemployment in the country in order to improve the country’s growth and development on all grounds.
Table of Contents
CHAPTER 1
INTRODUCTION………………………………………………………………………………………… 0
BACKGROUND STUDY ……………………………………………………………………………….. 0
BRIEF HISTORY OF POPULATION GROWTH TREND IN NIGERIA …………………………………………………… 0
RESEARCH STATEMENT ……………………………………………………………………………… 9
RESEARCH OBJECTIVES ……………………………………………………………………………… 9
RESEARCH QUESTIONS ………………………………………………………………………………. 9
RESEARCH HYPOTHESES ………………………………………………………………………….. 10
SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY ……………………………………………………………………. 10
KEY TERMS: ……………………………………………………………………………………………. 11
CHAPTER 2
LITERATURE REVIEW ……………………………………………………………………………….. 12
FACTORS THAT CAUSES UNEMPLOYMENT IN NIGERIA …………………………………. 13
EFFECTS OF UNEMPLOYMENT IN NIGERIA ………………………………………………….. 15
FEATURES OF A RAPIDLY GROWING POPULATION ……………………………………….. 17
REASONS FOR NIGERIA’S INCREASING POPULATION ……………………………………. 18
IMPLICATIONS OF A FAST GROWING POPULATION ON NIGERIA ……………………. 20
POSITIVE EFFECTS ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 20
NEGATIVE EFFECTS OF HIGH POPULATION…………………………………………………………………………….. 21
CHAPTER 3
A CASE STUDY OF CHINA’S ONE CHILD POLICY …………………………………………….. 24
EFFECTS ON POPULATION GROWTH AND FERTILITY RATE……………………………………………………….. 26
CHAPTER 4
METHODOLOGY ……………………………………………………………………………………… 33
SOURCES OF DATA ………………………………………………………………………………….. 33
PROBLEMS ENCOUNTERED ………………………………………………………………………. 34
PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS OF GRAPHS ………………………………………………… 34
REGRESSION MODEL ……………………………………………………………………………….. 37
DATA ANALYSIS ………………………………………………………………………………………. 38
CHAPTER 5
DISCUSSION OF RESULTS AND FINDINGS …………………………………………………… 40
SUMMARY REVIEW …………………………………………………………………………………. 41
RECOMMENDATIONS TO POPULATION ……………………………………………………… 42
RECOMMENDATIONS AND POLICIES FOR UNEMPLOYMENT …………………………. 43
BIBLIOGRAPHY ……………………………………………………………………………………….. 45
TABLE OF FIGURES
Figure 1 China’s population ………………………………………………………………………. 25
Figure 2 China’s total fertility rate ……………………………………………………………… 26
Figure 3 China’s Unemployment rate …………………………………………………………. 27
Figure 4 Decline in China’s Labor Force ………………………………………………………. 30
Figure 5 comparism of China’s population between 1995 and 2011 ……………….. 31
Figure 6 Nigeria’s Population from 2006-2015 …………………………………………….. 34
Figure 7 Nigeria’s Unemployment rate from 1967-2014 ……………………………….. 35
Figure 8 Sectoral share of Unemployment in Nigeria from 1970-2014 ……………. 36
Figure 9 contributions of various sectors of the economy on unemployment ….. 36
CHAPTER 1
INTRODUCTION
The main objective of this paper is to study and analyze the relationship between unemployment and population growth in Nigeria. Unemployment and population are two solid indicators to a country’s development and growth. According to the economics help organization, Unemployment can be explained as the number of people or people in the workforce who are willing, able and capable to work but do not have a paid job. Unemployment is mostly used as a tool to measure the health of the economy. The unemployment rate is often used as a measure to unemployment. Population on the other hand is defined according to Michael Todaro as the number of individuals living in a country. This research aims to analyze the correlation between population and unemployment and how a rise in unemployment affects the growth and development of the country.
BACKGROUND STUDY
BRIEF HISTORY OF POPULATION GROWTH TREND IN NIGERIA
After the independence in 1960, a successful population census was carried out in Nigeria in 1964, which an estimated population of 55.6 million people was taken into account. Since then, it became obvious that Nigeria’s population was leading to a rapid population growth. In 1991, a population census was held and the country’s population increased to an approximated 88.5 million people. The analysis helped the National Development Planning to gain more insight and enable them to improve and develop more on their policies and planning (Evans, 2011). The UNDP reported in 2007 that the Nigerian population continuously increased at 3% per annum with birth rate of 40 per 1,000 and also a death rate of 15 per 1,000 (Gideon, 2016). It was also estimated that an educated Nigerian woman gives birth to a lesser number of 3 children
compared to an average Nigerian woman who gives birth to 6 children in her lifetime (Evans, 2011). From analysis of the past census and reports, it is evident that the population has been rapidly growing at a high rate of 250% from 1964 to present. This makes it problematic to match the population growth rate and development of the country (Evans, 2011).
Nigeria at present has the highest population in Africa and the 10th in the world. It was reported that the Nigerian population is associated with three factors namely; fertility, migration and mortality. It was noticed that the population growth increases at 3% which implies a doubling time of 22years (Evans, 2011). This also means that the country is growing at a geometric progression. The problem with this is the capacity of the country’s economy to also grow proportionately that it will cope and accommodate the increased population. The low mortality of 14 per 1,000 decreased infant mortality rate and higher life expectancy signifies a problem because it indicates a higher chance of survival (Evans, 2011).
A survey was conducted and it was observed that high fertility rate is the main factor that contributes to the increasing population of the country. A study in 1981/1982 estimated that an average Nigerian woman gives birth to 6 children in her lifetime, which is quite a high number (Evans, 2011). There can only be a decline in fertility rate if Nigerians experience a change and transformation in socio-psychological attitude of citizens, cultural beliefs and the economy. An approach was once implemented in 1988 to achieve the goal of lowering the population. This approach was followed by a national population policy to help limit and adjust the population growth by increasing people’s living standard in the country through the provision of a good health care system. The main drive and motivation of this initiative is targeted towards young couples to encourage them and ensure that they give birth to a minimum of four children (Dao M. Q., 2012).
RESEARCH STATEMENT
This research is carried out to learn about the influence of population on unemployment in Nigeria, so as to find out why current rate of unemployment is high and increasing rapidly over the years. This will further give an understanding whether the high rate of unemployment is associated with the increasing population in the country. It has been obvious that over the years, the rate of population has been increasing at a geometric level and so does the unemployment rate, there seem to be a positive correlation (relationship). If my hypothesis is true, I will explore and research on possible solutions that can best tackle the problem of unemployment and recommend policies which will tackle this problem which will in turn help in the growth and development of the country.
RESEARCH OBJECTIVES
To analyze the relationship between population growth and unemployment
Find out causes of population growth and unemployment
Suggest measures and policy to address the problem
RESEARCH QUESTIONS
Does population affect other sectors of the economy?
What could be the way out of the high rate of unemployment?
How has unemployment affected the country on Micro and Macroeconomic level?
What measures have been put in place (government or individual) to tackle the problem of unemployment and increasing population in the country?
Is population to be blamed for the high rate of unemployment?
Has unemployment and population affected development in Nigeria?
RESEARCH HYPOTHESES
The hypotheses asserted in this research are:
1. H0: that there is a positive correlation between unemployment and population if r is positive (+)
2. HA: there is a negative correlation between unemployment and population if r is negative (-).
1. H0: No serial correlation between unemployment and population if d=2,
2. HA: there is either a positive or negative serial correlation (there is positive serial correlation If d<2 and if d>2, there is negative serial correlation).
1. H0: there is no significant variability between unemployment and population growth if p<α.
2. HA: there is a significant variability on unemployment and population if p>α.
SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY
This study is significant because it addresses vital aspect of the economy. The country has been experiencing slow growth rate and a decline in development and unemployment is a negative indicator to development. Therefore, addressing this problem is of utmost importance as it will root out major causes of unemployment and population growth. It will also suggest possible strategies and measures to be put in place to tackle the problem which will lead to the country’s growth and development
DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS:
Unemployment: A state where an individual, capable and willing to work cannot secure a job.
Poverty: A state where an individual cannot sufficiently provide for his/her needs due to limited financial resources
Gross Domestic Product: It is an indicator to a country’s economic growth and development, usually estimated annually.
Population growth: It is a rise in the number of people living in a country.
Economic Growth and Development: It is an increase in individual’s standard of living and a rise national income.
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