Table of Contents
CERTIFICATION/APPROVAL ……………………………………………………….. i
DEDICATION …………………………………………………………………………………. ii
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT ……………………………………………………………….. iii
LIST OF FIGURES ……………………………………………………………………….. viii
ABSTRACT …………………………………………………………………………………….. ix
CHAPTER ONE ……………………………………………………………………………….. 1
INTRODUCTION …………………………………………………………………………….. 1
1.0 Background of the Project …………………………………………………………. 1
1.1 Statement of the Research Problem …………………………………………… 2
1.2 Objectives of the Project ……………………………………………………………. 3
1.3 Significance of the Project …………………………………………………………. 3
1.4 Scope of the Project …………………………………………………………………… 4
1.5 Limitations of the Study …………………………………………………………….. 4
CHAPTER TWO ………………………………………………………………………………. 5
LITERATURE REVIEW ………………………………………………………………….. 5
2.1 Review of Related Work ……………………………………………………………. 5
2.2 History of Weather Predictions ………………………………………………….. 7
2.3 How Models Create Forecasts ……………………………………………………. 8
2.3.1 Data Collection ……………………………………………………………………. 8
2.3.2 Data Assimilation and Analysis …………………………………………..10
2.3.3 Numerical Weather Prediction ……………………………………………10
2.3.4 Model Output Post Processing …………………………………………….10
2.4 Forecasting Techniques ……………………………………………………………11
2.4.1 Persistence ………………………………………………………………………….11
2.4.2 Use of a Barometer ……………………………………………………………..11
2.4.3 Looking at the Sky ………………………………………………………………11
2.4.4 Nowcasting …………………………………………………………………………12
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2.4.5 Use of Forecast Models ……………………………………………………….12
2.4.6 Analog Technique ……………………………………………………………….13
2.5 Public Uses of Weather Forecasting ………………………………………….15
2.6 Severe Weather Alerts and Advisories ………………………………………16
2.6.1 Air Traffic ………………………………………………………………………….16
2.6.2 Marine ……………………………………………………………………………….17
2.6.3 Agriculture …………………………………………………………………………17
2.6.4 Forestry ……………………………………………………………………………..17
2.6.5 Utility Companies ……………………………………………………………….18
2.6.6 Private Sector ……………………………………………………………………..18
2.6.7 Military Applications ………………………………………………………….19
2.7 TIME ANALYSIS OF DATA TO CREATE FORECASTS ………19
2.7.1 Rainfall Trends in Kano …………………………………………………..20
2.7.2 Onset Trends in Kano ……………………………………………………..22
2.7.3 Termination Trends for Kano ………………………………………….24
2.7.4 Duration Trends for Kano ……………………………………………….25
2.7.5 Relationship between Annual Rainfall Totals and Other Rainy Season Parameters ……………………………………………………………27
CHAPTER THREE ………………………………………………………………………….29
SYSTEM ANALYSIS AND DESIGN ……………………………………………….29
3.1 System Analysis ……………………………………………………………………….29
3.1.1 Systems Investigation …………………………………………………………….29
3.1.1. Data Gathering Techniques Used ………………………………………….30
3.1.2 Analysis and Documentation of Findings …………………………….30
3.2 Management Report …………………………………………………………………31
3.2.1 Problem Re-definition …………………………………………………………31
3.2.2 Review of Project Goals ………………………………………………………32
3.2.3 Estimation of project Feasibility and Scope …………………………32
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3.3 Systems Design …………………………………………………………………………32
3.3.1 System and Program Flowchart ………………………………………….33
3.3.2 Systems Requirements ………………………………………………………..34
CHAPTER FOUR ……………………………………………………………………………37
IMPLEMENTATION ………………………………………………………………………37
4.1 Program Design ……………………………………………………………………….37
4.2 Choice of Programming Language ……………………………………………37
4.3 Algorithm of the Program ………………………………………………………..38
4.4 Experience While Debugging/Testing ……………………………………….39
4.5 Operational Procedures ……………………………………………………………40
4.5.1 Installation Procedure …………………………………………………………40
4.5.2 Execution Procedure …………………………………………………………..40
4.6 System Implementation ……………………………………………………………41
4.6.1 Staff Training Requirements ………………………………………………41
4.6.2 System Testing ……………………………………………………………………42
4.6.3 Security Issues…………………………………………………………………….42
4.6.4 System Review and Maintenance ……………………………………..42
4.6.5 Changeover Methods ………………………………………………………….43
CHAPTER FIVE ……………………………………………………………………………..44
SUMMARY, RECOMMENDATIONS AND CONCLUSION ……………44
5.1 Summary …………………………………………………………………………………44
5.2 Conclusion ……………………………………………………………………………….45
5.3 Recommendations …………………………………………………………………….45
REFERENCES ………………………………………………………………………………..47
Appendix A ………………………………………………………………………………………49
(Flowchart) ………………………………………………………………………………………49
APPENDIX B …………………………………………………………………………………..54
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(PROGRAM CODES LISTING) ………………………………………………………54
APPEDIX C ……………………………………………………………………………………..67
(OUTPUT SNAPSHOTS) …………………………………………………………………67
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LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1: Trends in annual rainfall for Kano
Figure 2: Relationship between Decadal means and long term means for annual rainfall in Kano.
Figure 3: Trends in Onset Date for Kano.
Figure 4: Relationship between decadal means and long term means for onset of the rainy season in Kano.
Figure 5: Trends in termination date for Kano.
Figure 6: Relationship between Decadal means and long term means for the termination of the rainy season in Kano.
Figure 7: Trends in Duration of the Rainy Season for Kano.
Figure 8: Relationship between Decadal means and long term means for the duration of the rainy season in Kano.
Figure 9: Correlate Rainfall amount to others
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ABSTRACT
Automated Forecasting System have been shown to be highly effective in providing a wide range of integrated capabilities for time series analysis and forecasting, econometrics and systems modeling and financial analysis and reporting. We have presented a platform for the practical development and design of a Rainfall Prediction System for the Kano City Metropolitan Area. The system automatically makes future forecasts of rainfall using the rainfall forecasting model derived from the inputted rainfall time series data. The system when fully implemented will ensure accurate analysis and forecasting processes that takes place over time in Kano. The language of implementation is Visual Basic. NET
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CHAPTER ONE
INTRODUCTION
1.0 Background of the Project
It is well known that weather and climatic conditions exert a strong influence on human activities.
The major goal of various national and international climatic programs is to minimize the adverse and maximize the positive socioeconomic consequences of weather and climatic variations (Mason, 1978; Lamb, 1981; World Meteorological Organization, 1978). The capability to better predict weather and climate events is likely to be the skill which ultimately achieves these objectives. Using forecast information to improve societal well-being requires satisfying three demanding, reasonably sequential prerequisites. These are: 1) Identification of the most severely impacted economic sectors, 2) Determination of which of these sectors possess the flexibility to benefit from the use of climatic forecasts in decision making, and 3) The development of accordingly focused climate forecast schemes (Lamb, 1981).
Satisfying the third prerequisite requires that socioeconomic evaluations be performed to ensure that weather and climate forecast deliver economic value. A number of studies have assessed the value of either actual or potential forecast capabilities. One major objective of this project is to review past and existing weather forecasting systems and models and based on their short comings, design, develop and implement a weather forecasting system with focus on rainfall prediction, which is the case for this project.
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1.1 Statement of the Research Problem
Weather forecasting is the application of science and technology to predict the state of the atmosphere for a future time and a given location (Wesley, 2008). Human beings have attempted to predict the weather informally for millennia, and formally since at least the nineteenth century. Weather forecasts are made by collecting quantitative data about the current state of the atmosphere and using scientific understanding of atmospheric processes to project how the atmosphere will evolve (Wesley, 2008).
Once an all-human endeavor based mainly upon changes in barometric pressure, current weather conditions, and sky condition, forecast models are now used to determine future conditions. Human input is still required to pick the best possible forecast model to base the forecast upon, which involves pattern recognition skills, teleconnections, knowledge of model performance, and knowledge of model biases. The chaotic nature of the atmosphere, the massive computational power required to solve the equations that describe the atmosphere, error involved in measuring the initial conditions, and an incomplete understanding of atmospheric processes mean that forecasts become less accurate as the difference in current time and the time for which the forecast is being made (the range of the forecast) increases.
There are a variety of end uses to weather forecasts. Weather warnings are important forecasts because they are used to protect life and property. Forecasts based on rainfall and temperature are important to agriculture, and therefore to traders within commodity markets. Everyday basis, people use
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weather forecasts to determine what to wear on a given day. Since outdoor activities are severely curtailed by heavy rain, snow and the
Wind chill, forecasts can be used to plan activities around these events, and to plan ahead and survive them. Thus, the need to have in place appropriate, reliable and accurate forecast model that can help predict or forecast future weather conditions cannot be undermined. This has necessitated a research in this direction to design, developed and implement a rainfall forecasting software. The software will be designed using Visual BASIC programming language and will make use of historical rainfall data from 1960 to 2010 collected within the Kano City area of Kano State, Nigeria.
1.2 Objectives of the Project
The project will majorly seek to design, develop and implement a rainfall forecasting system. The forecasting system will provide the following activities:
i.) Entering, editing and updating rainfall data;
ii.) Trend analysis of rainfall data;
iii.) Above all, the system automatically make future forecasts of rainfall using the rainfall forecasting model derived from the inputted rainfall time series data.
iv.) A rainfall computerized forecasting model interface.
1.3 Significance of the Project
A project of this sort to design and develop a software system that can predict future rainfall for a given area, when designed and fully implemented will be relevant in the following ways:
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i.) It will help to minimize the adverse and maximize the positive socioeconomic consequences of weather and climatic variations;
ii.) Such rainfall forecast information will help to improve societal well-being;
iii.) Furthermore, such weather warnings can be used to protect lives and properties since an individual is already well informed of how the weather will be beforehand;
iv.) Forecasts based on rainfall and temperature are important to agriculture, and therefore to traders within commodity markets;
v.) Finally, weather forecasts can be used to determine what to wear on a given day. Since outdoor weather forecasts can be used to plan activities around these events, and to plan ahead and survive them.
1.4 Scope of the Project
The project focus mainly on rainfall predictions within Kano City, Nigeria and fuzzy logic techniques will be used for the analysis.
1.5 Limitations of the Study
In carrying out this research work, we were faced with some limitations. Designing a forecasting system is quite a complex task especially with the fact that one is not quite efficient or skillful in the programming language of implementation and learning the language alongside with academic work, considering the short time allocated for the research work is not an easy task. This has limited the research work to the scope specified in the previous section above.
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